A Chance for a Flurry of a New Year

Odds of us avoiding snow until the New Year are pretty high. Unfortunately, one last round of downpours will cross our region next week to remind us of the wettest year on record in our region.

If you were dreaming of a brown and muddy Christmas, you got your dream and wish this year.  Another soggy storm crossed the region on Thursday night and brought another inch of rain, pushing our total rainfall in the region toward 65 inches for the year. With a few days left in 2011, we have one more legitimate shot of rain next week that should bring us another half inch to one inch of rain to the region.

That round of rain is expected on Tuesday, with low pressure following the train tracks of the Thursday night low. Most of the precipitation with that low will come into the region for Tuesday afternoon and evening although a start early in the day can't be ruled out.

Rainfall will be steadier and heavier down toward Philadelphia and South Jersey, near where the low tracks. Up this way, temperatures will be a bit cooler (lower-40s for highs on Tuesday) as the low should track to our south. However, we should avoid seeing frozen precipitation (snow/sleet) - any of that might fall in the Poconos and only at the onset of the storm before seeing temperatures moderate and having rain fall up there.

Some minor flooding can't be ruled out - just like the storm system we just had - particularly on the more susceptible streams and areas that are prone to see ponding of water or minor flooding.

The trend of the rest of 2011 is to have seasonable chill -- 40s for highs, lows a few degrees below freezing. Arguably the nicest day of the week will be Friday as temperatures approach 50 degrees under sunny skies in advance of a system that I'll highlight in a moment. We'll have some breezy weather on Wednesday in the wake of the next storm system and then again on New Years Eve as a clipper low passes through the region. That clipper low could bring snow showers, flurries, or perhaps rain showers depending on track and temperature.

We're a week-plus away from that; however, so much can change from what's currently being projected in computer guidance. This system doesn't look like it will bring as much precipitation as the Tuesday storm, regardless of outcome, so New Years celebrations shouldn't drown or get plowed away in a sea of snow or rain.


Tom Thunstrom is the editor and publisher of Phillyweather.net.


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