A storm system is organizing in the southern parts of the country, poised to impact us on Tuesday as it lifts northeast through the Great Lakes and Northeast. A strong low and mid-level jet stream will accompany the intensifying low, with the result being the potential for severe wind gusts and soaking rains for the region.
This system is most likely to arrive on Tuesday evening into and continue into Tuesday night. The Storm Prediction Center says there's a decent chance for severe weather in the region as the storm system moves through.
It won't be the traditional "thunderstorm" that severe storms fall under. Fall severe weather events traditionally have less thunder and are driven by dynamics with the jet stream and a stronger low pressure system. The result is a windswept line of rain that can produce gusty winds and perhaps a tornado or two.
The event that moved through on Saturday, Sept. 8 is similar in many regards to what is anticipated on Tuesday night, but in this case the dynamics with the storm system look stronger and the result could be more widespread wind and rain.
Rainfall with the storm system could reach or exceed an inch, with some minor flooding possible in the heaviest of downpours. Heavier rainfall is expected farther west (central into western Pennsylvania), where a couple of inches can't be ruled out.
In the wake of this storm system, cooler and breezy conditions take over for Wednesday before the weather settles down and produces a rather awesome Thursday and Friday. Another chance of showers is possible Saturday with another low spinning through the Great Lakes, but that front should be a bit less potent than what is coming our way Tuesday evening.